I have picked some of the week 10 match-ups and dived into each team on a macro and micro level. Along with including my Player to Watch for each team.
Panthers @ Buccaneers
The Pick: Buccs
Spread: Carolina +4.5
Watchability - ***
The Buccs are coming into this one off the back of what must be Tom Brady’s most embarrassing career loss. So I’m sure the Buccs will come out with some urgency this week, after all, results like last week are fine if they are once in a season. If they come out flat this week oh boy. As for the Panthers, they are way friskier than people are giving them credit for.
The Buccaneers will be coming into this game on the back of their embarrassing 38-3 loss to the Saints, in prime time no less. The Buccaneers looked awful in that game against the Saints, on both sides of the ball. Teams can bounce back after these big losses, look at the Packers after their bad loss to this very Buccs team. There was a lot of talk about the Buccs offense coming into this season, however, it will be their defense that they live or die by. Lucky for them it’s one of the best defensive units in the NFL. They actually still sit atop the defensive DVOA chart even after the 38-3 demolition by the Saints (only a fraction above the Steelers). In comparison to the offense which is 13th in the league. Brady has still been fantastic this season, much better than his last year with the Pats. Somewhat proving that there was in fact smoke with fire in terms of Brady needing better weapons around him. They have all had their own injury issues but Evans, Godwin & Scotty Miller have all proved they add value to the offense. Not to mention the resurrection of Gronk and the addition of Antonio Brown. The offense is stacked with weapons now. Oh, also Fournette and Ronald Jones who were selected in the first and second rounds respectively (rightly or wrongly). The Buccaneers defense gets back to form and they win this one in a tight finish. Player to watch Devin White #45 - One of my favorite prospects when he was coming out of the 2019 NFL Draft, he's lightning-quick and will be a big part of the Buccs stopping the Panthers run game.
This season I have been falling in love with the Panthers young defense and what new head coach Matt Rhule is building in Carolina on the whole. This team is by no means great just yet, but coming into this season many people thought they might be heading to the number 1 overall pick in 2021. For all my falling in love with the team’s defensive unit, it’s the offense that deserves a lot of the credit for their 3-5 record. Teddy Two Gloves has come into the team and done exactly what he was asked to do – play consistent mistake-free football and allow his run game to help him move the chains. Bridgewater is entering week ten with an 11:6 TD:INT ratio, only one fumble, and the second-highest completion % in the NFL (behind only former teammate Drew Brees). He gives his team the chance to stay in games by being an excellent decision-maker. Tie his play with Robby Anderson, who received the now standard boost every skill player receives as soon as Adam Gase is no longer their coach. They have breathed new life into the Panthers' offense. In the last couple of weeks, we have also seen the breakout of Curtis Samuel, who has been used both rushing and receiving.
With so many new pieces in this the covid season – new head coach, new Quarterback, along with Anderson. You hear it being used as an excuse for teams in the same or similar situations, so It should be even more impressive that Carolina is 8th in offensive DVOA. The young defense that I have mentioned loving at the top doesn’t fare as well on the DVOA ranking boards, coming in 26th. However, it’s my excitement comes from flashes that some of the younger players have shown and what this defense could be.
Brian Burns showed some of those flashes last year in his rookie year, now in his sophomore year, he might be the best and most consistent player on defense. Burns’ improvement in 2020 could be down to him changing his role on defense. In 2019 the Panthers flirted with a 3-4 defensive front, having been a 4-3 team for most of Ron Rivera’s tenour. While this wasn’t an out and out switch Burns did play the majority of his snaps when the Panthers were in 3-4 as an Outside-Linebacker. In 2020 under Matt Rhule, the Panthers have been back to the 4-3 defensive front and Burns has been able to move to his more natural position of Defensive-End. This season Brain Burns total QB pressure numbers (Sacks, Hits & Hurries) represent 25% of Carolina’s total pass rush and 40% if you look at just the defensive linemen. Donte Jackson has been having a good year in coverage so far, through the first seven weeks he only allowed a total of 110 yards with a high of 36 yards in one game. Only allowing two TDs and grabbing two picks. In week 8 and 9 he has slipped some allowing the Falcons to gain over 100 yards against him, he did get another pick in that game. Then 48 yards and a TD to the Chiefs last week. In his third year now, he has really great ball skills 10 career picks, he just needs to become more consistent in coverage and when making tackles. Finally, the player that gets me the most excited is Jeremy Chinn, I wrote a little about him prior to the 2020 draft. He is the kind of player that I love, a safety in college who is a freaky athlete. As I mentioned in the pre-draft piece Chinn has the athletic ability to play in more than one role on defense. In his rookie year, he’s already showing how versatile he is. Chinn played in every game this season until an injury held him out of the line-up last week. In those games he has lined up: in the box as a linebacker, slot corner, free safety, defensive lineman & wide corner, descending in that order of how many snaps he played.
Chinn hasn’t looked amazing yet, for one has missed a handful of tackles. As I said though, the flashes of what this guy can do are there. The fact that the coaching staff has the trust in him to play snaps at so many positions and start him all year is also a great sign for the future. Player to watch Jeremy Chinn #21 (if healthy) – for all the reasons above, plus it’s just fun to see where he’s gonna line up on the next snap.
Giants @ Eagles
The Pick: Eagles
Spread: Eagles +3.5
Watchability - *
The NFC East or as it’s known to most the NFC Least has truly lived up to that nickname. I won’t be getting into whether or not any team in this division will deserve to be in the playoffs (they won’t) never mind hosting a playoff game. As for this game, I’ll pick the Eagles despite how bad they have looked all-season or that the Giants should have won their week 7 match-up.
The Eagles problems are not all on QB Carson Wentz, although he has been one of the worst QBs in the league this season. There isn’t really any way you can slice it to somehow shift the blame elsewhere. Sure, the offensive line has been all over the place with injuries, but they haven’t been as bad as they probably should have. Wentz needs to play better and stop turning the damn ball over. Wentz has had fumble issues since he entered the league, however, until this year he was actually very safe when throwing the ball – in each of his last three seasons he has thrown exactly seven interceptions. This year he had thrown 12 in 8 games, which leads the NFL. As an Eagles fan who has watched every game, the hard part is that the picks keep getting worse. The first couple against Washington were defensible, good plays by the defense could have maybe been a slightly better throw. The second of the two in the Rams game was horrible, both in the Bengals game are really poor. Niners game was batted, but he was running around trying to keep the play alive in the pocket. Both against the Steelers were horrific, the first one specifically. Against the Giants it was a bad scramble drill, whether or not there was a miscommunication about what Hightower would do in that situation, the pass had no hope. Finally, the game prior to the bye, against the leagues’ worst defense, he had two more picks. Diggs made an excellent catch and did well to stay in bounds for the first, but it shouldn’t have ever been thrown. Wentz still threw into double coverage, when he had Greg Ward Jr wide open in the flat for a decent gain (it was 1st down, no need to force the endzone).
The second of that game looked at first like the wind may have played a part. In summary, I count at least half of the interceptions being entirely on Wentz, with the worst being the first pick in the Steelers game. Throwing from a clean pocket Wentz missed the open man by two or more yards and threw it straight to the defender. Not to mention this was backed up in Eagles territory.
Wentz has had the bye week to try to get back to his old self. Wentz is also going to be getting some familiar faces in the huddle with him – Alshon Jeffery, Miles Sanders will both be returning from injury this week, along with rookie Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert who both returned from injury in week 8. With the emergence of Travis Fulgham and Ward, the Eagles now have a really nice group of weapons (Wentz will still be missing his favorite target, Zach Ertz).
Jim Schwartz has also managed to right the ship on the defensive side of the ball after a miserable start to the year. The Eagles front is looking a lot more like the kind of front Eagles fans have gotten used to seeing during the Jim Schwartz tenour. The Eagles currently rank 4th in Football Outsiders pass rush statistics (9.1% adjusted sack rate vs NFL average 6.4). Unsurprisingly the pass rush is being led by franchise studs Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox – Graham is on pace for his career-high in sacks with 7 in 8 games (top 11 in NFL). There have also been some nice moments from Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. Other players worth shouting out on defense are Darius Slay, Jalen Mills, and Rodney McLeod. Mills in particular who started the year at Safety (a new position for him having been a CB), but due to injuries have been playing all over the secondary. Player to watch Jalen Reagor #18 – Practise squad sensation Travis Fulgham will see a lot of James Bradberry, which should allow for Reagor to have a big game.
I do feel for Giants fans, you draft what might be the only running back worth a 2nd overall pick and he’s been hurt for two years (most would also say that’s why you don’t do that, but it’s not the time for that). For one I think that Joe Judge has a lot of previous experience that gets me excited about a rookie Head Coach:
Former Special Teams Coach
Experience with a winning culture
Spent time with great football minds
Now as a disclaimer these things are not really in any way a sure-fire way to find a successful head coach, just a few things I’ve either read about or notice. First, the Special Teams aspect is something I have read about in the book Gridiron Genius by Mike Lombardi. In the book, Lombardi talks about how Bill Belichick would use Special Teams as a way of building a foundation of teamwork within the organization. Part of building the “all in” culture, if everyone does their job the whole will work mindset. Not only that but it’s one of the only coaching positions outside of head coach that deals with players from all aspects of the game – offense, defense & specialists. Understanding how to communicate with all different types of players is a key part of being a Head Coach. He joins Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh as current NFL head coaches who were previously coaching Special Teams.
The winning culture that I mentioned is something that you’ve probably heard a lot about in recent years. It’s hard to really pinpoint what that is, but from all my reading on the subject, it seems like a feeling of unity and belief from the top of the roster to the bottom. Everyone has a role in the team and without them winning games would be much harder. Whether that be someone like Tom Brady, kick coverage guy, or the scout team guys. I remember one America’s game that I watched of one of the early Patriots Super Bowls (Brady’s 2nd if memory serves), they faced off against the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning for the right to play in the Super Bowl. All week in practice the scout team QB would impersonate Manning to the best of his ability, not his throwing arm but how Manning would change plays at the line of scrimmage and make adjustments. After the Pats won that AFC Championship the game ball was given to the scout team QB that hadn’t played a snap. I think this kind of stuff plays a part, there needs to be unity through the whole team.
The last of my bullet points is one that many franchises have definitely tried in that past, hiring coaches who have spent time learning from the best. There are many failed former Patriots coaches for example that couldn’t build the same culture once given a chance, however, I do still think it is a step up for coaches to have seen a winning culture in action. The real differentiating factor for these coaches is how they go on to implement that culture. You don’t have to look far for a coach who has tried to do this and failed, Matt Patricia seems to be on the brink of a mutiny in Detroit. All this is to say that for an unheralded name I think Giants fans have a right to be excited at the possibilities Joe Judge can bring.
Success on the field can be hard to come by for rookie Head Coaches, even more so when the team you inherit’s best win total in the previous three years is five. Throw in your most talented offensive player being injured for the season and you can probably forgive judge for his 2-7 start to 2020. The one area that Judge has had some real tangible success is with his free-agent signings. The Giants signed Cornerbacks James Bradberry & Logan Ryan, Linebackers Blake Martinez & Kyler Fackrell, and Offensive Tackle Cameron Fleming. Those four defensive players represent the four highest defensive snap counts for the Giants, and Fleming is the starting Right Tackle. Martinez and Bradberry in particular have been excellent for the Giants this season. Bradberry is becoming one of the better cover Cornerbacks around, and Martinez is a ball magnet. As predicted above I think the Eagles will win the game but it won't be as easy as a 2-7 record would suggest. Player to watch Blake Martinez #54 – I think the run game will be important for the Eagles today and Martinez will be doing his best to take that away.
Dolphins @ Chargers
The Pick: Phins
Spread:
Watchability - *****
Nothing much better than watching two young rising star QBs face off against each other, just ask anyone who watched Kyler vs Tua last week. The pick here is much easier than it should be though. The Chargers have looked great in so many ways and Herbert has shattered any expectations on him, yet they just can’t get a win. If you are a betting man, then I would wait until the Chargers in the lead by two scores before betting the Dolphins. The Chargers are giving the Falcons a run for the “no lead is safe” championship belt. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are a team that is playing really great defense in that last few weeks and Tua is looking more comfortable after his debut.
The draw to this game for most will be the killer QB match-up as mentioned above. However, the reason I’m picking the Dolphins is their defense which has been excellent the past few weeks. A common thing you may have heard is that it usually takes NFL defenses longer to click, due to how much less padded practice there is now, and the ever-reducing role starters have in the preseason. Of course, in 2020 this will surely have an even greater impact on defenses (we did see a lot of records broken for TDs and high scores in the early weeks of the year). Now as we pass the halfway point in the season, defenses are running out of time to “get right”. Maimi is one of the defenses that I believe have been really finding their sea legs in the choppy waters of the 2020 NFL season. Here’s their last four games: 43-17 win over 49ers, 24-0 win over the Jets, 28-17 win over the rams, and last week’s 34-31 win in the thriller against the Cardinals. That four-game stretch includes two defensive TDs, four fumbles, eleven sacks, and a shutout. Brian Flores is already one of the front runners for coach of the year (rightly so), but GM Chris Grier deserves some credit as well for getting Flores the pieces to run his defense effectively. Between the two of them, they might have one of the top defensive units in the NFL for years to come.
By no means perfect, but this handful of stats indicate that the Dolphins defense clicking. They are a hard team to score on and move the ball against, pretty simple. It just doesn’t tell us how they are doing it. As mentioned earlier the Dolphins continued to build their roster to suit Flores’ aggressive style of defense. If you are looking to be a heavy blitzing team, then it’s less about the blitzers and more about having a secondary that can hold up in man-to-man coverage with no safety help. The Dolphins already had Xavien Howard and they went out and signed Cowboys CB Bryon Jones in the offseason. Giving them two elite man coverage Cornerbacks to play on the outside. Bobby McCain and Eric Rowe are the teams starting Safeties – McCain is an unheralded but solid safety who has been in Miami since he was drafted in 2015. Rowe on the other hand started out life as a CB, he spent one year in Philadelphia before being traded to the New England Patriots. In Rowe’s three years with the Patriots he was never a starter at the outset of the season. With football being football he was often called upon to play a major role later in the year, Rowe played in both Super Bowl 51 (win over Falcon) & 52 (loss to Eagles). Including starting over Malcolm Butler against the Eagles which was a big talking point and spelled the end of Butler’s time with the Pats. Rowe had a tough night covering Alshon Jeffery in that Super Bowl allowing a team hight 80 yards and a TD. Rowe would only play in four games in 2018 before he was cut that offseason. Rowe signed for the Dolphins prior to the 2019 season and reunited with his former defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Rowe would find new life after being moved from Cornerback to Strong Safety during the Dolphins week five bye week in 2019. Since the move, he has been excellent for the Dolphins. Having a guy like Rowe playing SS is so valuable for when sending extra blitzers, as he has lots of experience playing man to man coverage from his days as a CB.
Flores hasn’t just rebuilt the defensive secondary; he has also changed the defensive front and has had to acquire the personel to make it work. Prior to Flores becoming the head coach the Dolphins were a 4-3 base defensive scheme, Flores wants runs a 3-4 based scheme. Flores went out and drafted Christian Wilkins with his first draft pick as a Head Coach, to play nose tackle. It was before the 2020 season that Flores was able to get his left and right ends to play alongside Wilkins – they added both Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency. Flores was also able to add another couple of his former Patriots players in the offseason when he signed Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts. Van Noy would be one of the two outside linebackers opposite promising 2019 draft pick, Andrew Van Ginkel. While Roberts would play as one of the two middle linebackers (Jerome Baker being the other).
The thing with Flores’ defense is that there is a lot disguising the blitz or showing blitz from one side of the line then retreating at the snap. Making the defense much harder for the QB to read pre-snap and prepare. Often when being blitzed the QB will know where the free rusher is coming from and try to get the ball out quickly. With Flores, it’s hard to be sure the blitz is coming from the free rusher or if other blitzers may drop back into coverage at the snap. The best example of this came when DT Christian Wilkins intercepted Jared Goff in Week 8.
The dolphins lined up in a cover 0 blitz, notice all of the pass rushers showing blitz up on the line of scrimmage. Goff can see this and knows he’s going to need to get rid of the ball fast. Goff makes the call for his offensive line to slide to the right where the TE is lined up in the slot, leaving Ogbah #91 as a free rusher. Goff knows (thinks) that the defense will be straight man coverage behind the all-out blitz. In situations like this teams will have specific plays to audible to that beat man coverage for a quick completion, a common one is a slant. The Rams believe they have the right call and Goff can get the ball out fast to Kupp running a slant. Just after the snap, the pass rushers engage with the offensive line as to not tip their hand, then both Wilkins #94 and Baker #55 drop back into a shallow zone.
Goff preoccupied by a screaming 275lbs Ogbah charging at him that he throws the pass to where he thinks Kupp will be for the easy completion. Only to find Wilkins standing in perfect position to intercept the pass.
These types of plays are really hard for a defense to pull off as perfectly as this example. However, this was something that Flores had great success with when the defensive coordinator for the Patriots. Blitz disguises are complicated for defenders to run and require great communication, discipline, and athleticism. This is why I went throw so many of the players on this defense because they all have a role in plays like these succeeding. It requires all the players who are showing blitz to be communicating pre-snap to make sure they know who is falling back in coverage. Discipline for those players to at first engage their block and then peel back into the zone. Having athletes who can drop back into those zones who may be more accustomed to being manly pass rushers is also very helpful (see 315lb NT making the pick). Having great man to man cover corners allows the coach to not only call these disguised blitzes but also call normal all-out Blitz, which is important to sell these types of play.
Again, this example is one of the better ones you’ll see, and these plays take a long time to get right on the practice field. It’s easy to see why there are so many former Patriots on this roster now, as they are already familiar with these types of play. Dolphins fans should be excited about Tua, but they should also be very excited about what Flores is building on the other side of the ball. Player to watch DeVante Parker #11 - Preston Williams will be missing from this game, and he was looking like Tua's favorite target early on. Parker has had his own injuries but is supposedly feeling good again. Watch out for the Paker Tua connection in this one.
Now to the Chargers. First of all, I need to apologize to Just Herbert as I was not nearly high enough on him pre-draft. I ranked him somewhere in the 20s. My only excuse is that Herbert is playing far better in LA than he ever did in Eugene. Now there could be many reasons for this:
Lack of Weapons: The only offensive skill player that Herbert played with that has been drafted into the NFL was Dillion Mitchell who was drafted in the seventh round of the 2018 draft. He was never promoted from the Vikings practice squad and was cut just before the 2020 season.
Conservative Play Calling: His offense in Oregon limited his downfield throws asking him to make the majority of his throws shy of 20 yards. They would also use play-action bootlegs often to get him moving outside the pocket, however, this does take away large portions of the field. His average depth of target was 8.8 yards tied 72nd, had 21 “big-time throws” tied 31st, and 714 screen pass yards 2nd.
Lack of throws showing he can throw with anticipation or with great touch.
His development seemed to stagnate or even regress following his breakout sophomore season. This again could be attributed to subpar weapons and play calling. Some worried he might lack aggressiveness to push the ball down field.
It’s easy in retrospect to blame the rest of the offense and the play-calling for not showcasing Herbert’s talents. When you look at the other two rookie QBs starting in the NFL this year. Tua was throwing to Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and DeVonta Smith (potential 1st round pick in 2021). Burrow was throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase (the top WR in 2020), and Terrace Marshall Jr (top 5 WR in 2020). As for the play calling that is harder to absolve Herbert of in the pre-draft process because it can be a sign that the coaches don’t have confidence in their QBs ability to push the ball downfield.
As we enter week 10 it seems crazy that there could have been questions about Herbert’s willingness to throw the ball downfield or his ball placement. Here are the top three Quarterbacks in the NFL ranked by TDs thrown on passes over 20 yards.
He doesn’t look out of place when compared to the two best deep ball throwers in the NFL. For reference, the next highest number of TDs on deep passes after those three is 6. Herbert is also top 10 for adjusted yards per attempt and completion. Just for good measure here are some of the Chargers receivers’ stats to show how much and how well Herbert is throwing the ball deep: Mike Williams is also 2nd in the NFL for average depth of target with 16.5 yards (Marquez Valdes-Scantling 17.7 is 1st), Jalen Guyton is 2nd in the NFL for % of targets 20+ yards downfield with 52.9% and has four receptions three of which were TDs.
For as exciting and great as Herbert’s play has been the Chargers find themselves with a record of 2-6. At the same time as being one of only two teams to not lose a game by more than one score, the other is the unbeaten Steelers. It’s hard to explain how teams like the Chargers get into the kind of situation they have. They just can’t seem to hold down a lead, and for me, that falls on the head coach and the play-caller (if they are different). The team must have gotten conservative on offense or stopped playing with intensity on defense. Once or twice in a season fine, maybe a couple of ten-point leads, it happens. Well, the Chargers are giving the Falcons a run for their money this year. They have blown three 17-point leads and even in their win against the Jaguars in week 6, they blow a 16-point lead, only to come back and win the game. Anthony Lynn is going to have to convince the Chargers front office that he can also be the solution to this problem, as he is a free agent at the end of this season. When you see Mahomes’ stats up next to Herbert’s, could being the team to finally hire Eric Beiniemy (Mahomes’ offensive coordinator in Kanas City) be a way of sustaining Herbert’s scintillating rookie form. After all, if he does set a new rookie TD record, he will be eclipsing the one set by Baker Mayfield in his rookie year, who has struggled since.
The Chargers' defense is heading in the wrong direction in many ways. Stud defensive end Melvin Ingram, starting cornerback Michael Davis and linebacker Denzel Perryman who is having a great year. Are all free agents at the end of the year not to mention that Desmond King was traded away just prior to the trade deadline. There is a chance this defense will look quite different next year, and it could be a quasi-rebuild. Player to watch Melvin Ingram #54 – With no Joey Bosa this week the pressure to get to Tua is going to be on Ingram.
Rams @ Seahawks
The Pick: Seahawks
Spread:
Watchability - ****
In a game where the offenses will be on show and many people will be watching their Fantasy players hoping they can pop off big, the winner will be decided by the defense.
The Seattle Seahawks are letting Russel Wilson cook and it has made them one of if not the most exciting team to watch in the league. However, what has kept them from being a Super Bowl favorite has been the play on the other side of the ball. The former Legion of Boom is now the Legion of Whom? Not to mention back in the days of the legion of boom there were also talent pass rushers upfront (Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett) to help them out. Now the legion of whom thing is stolen from twitter and also in my opinion not really fair. Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are one of the better safety tandems in the league when healthy. Shaquill Griffin had a good year in 2019 but has struggled this year both on the field and with injuries himself. Ugo Amadi has been a bright spot in the slot this year when he has been on the field.
This is not to make excuses for how the Seattle defense has played so far this year, but rather the talent they will have returning for the latter half of the season. The other talent injection that the Seahawks have up their sleeve is the recent acquisition of Carols Dunlap from the Bengals. The Seahawks sent B.J. Finney and a seventh-round pick to Cincinnati in order to bring Dunlap to the PNW. B.J. Finney for those interested in a 29-year-old journeyman offensive guard who cut his teeth backing up multiple positions on the Steelers offensive line. Dunlap is in the final year of his contract which gives Seattle the option to cut him loose if the move doesn’t work (no dead cap) or resign him if it does.
It’s fairly common knowledge that Seattle has needed some help up front to put more pressure on the QB. Even Collinsworth was mentioning it in the Sunday night overtime thriller against Arizona. The Seahawks did manage to get some more pressure against a gimpy Garrapolo, mainly when using Bobby Wagner as a blitzer. All this to say that Dunlap a two-time Pro Bowler (2015 & 16) should be a welcome addition on the Seattle defensive line, but just how much of a difference-maker can he be?
Dunlap now 31 years old might not at the peak of his career but by no means over the hill. In 2019 Dunlap had 9 sacks, however, Dunlap has only recorded one sack in 2020 so far. Dunlap has been a consistent problem for opposing QB’s since he entered the league in 2010. Dunlap averaged 8.2 sacks and 10.1 TFL from 2010-2019 including a season with 13.5 sacks. The consistency is the key with Dunlap, he has only missed two games since 2013 and has found himself in the top 10 for sacks this decade despite only one season breaking double digits. Throughout the decade Dunlap also racked up 101 TFL and 223 QB hits. Dunlap is also one of the best in the league at a slightly more niche stat, FO Pass Disruptions stat (which is batted passes + hits on the QB during their throwing motion). Dunlap ranked 2nd in 2019, 1st 2018, and 2nd in 2017 for Pass Disruptions. So, the only way I can look at this is that the Seahawks added one of the most consistent edge rushers of the last decade. The big question will be if that consistent production can continue now that he’s on the wrong side of 30.
If the Seahawks do get more production from their defensive front, it will help the entire defense. For starters opposing QBs will have less time to pick apart the secondary, which is part of the reason the Seahawks pass defense has been so bad. It’s not only on the secondary, they need the guys upfront to help them out a bit. It will also free up some of Seattle’s best weapons on defense – in order to generate some pressure on the QB the Seahawks have been using players like Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams (when he was healthy) to blitz more than they may have planned. More pressure from the defensive line will take some pressure off Ken Norton Jr (DC) who is having to get pressure elsewhere.
In his first game for Seattle last week against the Bills, Dunlap looked like the addition the Seahawks were crying out for, finishing with five pressures, three sacks, a QB hit, and hurry. Unfortunately for Seattle, it didn’t have the desired effect on the secondary, which was torched by Josh Allen for 415 yards on 31 of 38 passes with three TDs. This week against the Rams getting pressure on Jared Goff, who’s famously poor when under pressure, will be all the more important. Player to Watch Jamal Adams #33 – I just love watching this guy play.
The major difference between the 2019 Rams and the 2020 Rams is the play of the offensive line. In the 2019 season, the Rams used a total of eleven different Offensive linemen no team used more. This is a stark contrast to the previous two seasons in which no Rams starting lineman missed a game due to injury. Following their bye in week nine, Andrew Whitworth was the only player to start in the same position on the offensive line as did in week one. The rest had either been lost to injury or had to shuffle to a new position due to an injury. Whitworth remained an elite pass blocker on Goff’s blindside with only Ronnie Staley of the Ravens posting a better, snaps per blown block number per FO. However, according to PFF Whitworth posted the worst run-blocking grade of his career in 2019. Whether or not this is a sign of Whitworth’s advancing age (37 years old in 2019), or more to do with the constant changes along the other four lineman spots remains to be seen. Some of the more classic counting stats might not tell you that this was a struggling offensive line last year, they lead the league in sacks allowed last year with only 22 and an adjusted sack rate of only 3.7% of plays (better than both 2017 & 2018). The number that I would direct to, however, is 31.5% pressure rate which ranked 22nd in the league. Meaning that Goff was being pressured on nearly a 3rd of his passing snaps (worse than both 2017 & 2018). This is a much larger issue for the Rams than it may seem on the surface though, as evidenced by Goff’s passing grade with and without pressure via PFF.com:
PFF.com also has a handy stat called “Adjusted Completion Percentage” which is the % of aimed passes thrown on target. Here’s a look at how Goff Stacks up when under pressure in comparison to the rest of the league:
Now using the same stat but when the pocket is clean:
The interesting thing with Goff is that so far this season the disparity between Goff’s numbers when under pressure or clean has only gotten bigger. He has the 2nd best adjusted completion percentage when clean and the worst when under pressure.
As I mentioned at the top of this section one of the biggest differences between this season and this season prior has been the health of their offensive line. After going through the wringer in 2019 they are back to their old ways – having their five best offensive lineman play in all but one game (the first of the season). Only one of their guards has missed any snaps, in this of all seasons that’s close to a miracle.
I could be wrong about this, but I feel like the Rams defense hasn’t been getting much credit for being one of the best defensive units in the NFL this year. Obviously, they have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey two of the leagues’ best individual defenders, but I don’t think people have been talking about them like they have about the Steelers or Buccs. While the Rams sit at or in the top three for some of my favorite more traditional stats:
Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA is a little bit lower on them but they still rank as a top 10 defense (8th). Personnel wise the Rams defense actually looks very similar to the Eagles defense (hear me out). They want to win up front without having to send extra pressure too often if they can help it, they want to limit the oppositions air yards, they have heavily invested in proven talent on the defensive line (Aaron Donald & Michal Brockers vs Fletcher Cox & Brandon Graham) and Cornerback (Jalen Ramsey vs Darius Slay). Oh, and they would be in the final of the “we don’t care about Linebackers” Olympics. Player to Watch Jalen Ramsey #20 – I would imagine that Ramsey will be following DK Metcalf all over the field. This is going to be a really fun match up, especially after Metcalf made last years’ Defensive Player of the year Stephon Gilmore his bitch in week 2.
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