In 2016 the Browns tried to half-ass their foray into analytics and "Moneyball" when they hired Paul DePodesta as Chief Strategy Officer. After four more losing seasons, two General Managers and two Head Coaches the Browns appear to be putting the other cheek in line.
Less than 48 hours after the Vikings were eliminated from the 2019 NFL playoffs, the Browns hired their OC Kevin Stafanski as their new Head Coach. In a move that many people had seen coming since he had been Paul DePodesta's favorite candidate the previous year, however, the powers at be made the move for Kitchens. Well, those powers don't be anymore, and according to reports, DePodesta has gained some of that power.
Anyway, Stefanski will (most likely) bring the Vikings play action heavy offense into Cleveland. The one that took the Vikings and Kirk Cousins to the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs and a big win over the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome.
From a purely offensive scheme fit, I love the Stefanski hire. It's been well documented that Gary Kubicak played a role in an advisory role for the Vikings in 2019, and his fingerprints were indeed visible when the 2019 Vikings were on the field. As stated previously, I expect that Stefanski will use the mentorship from Kubiak and bring much of that scheme to Cleveland. In my opinion, this should excite the Browns faithful. I will admit there is some bias here as I am a self-confessed Shannahan/Kubiak disciple. However, I believe that this system could fit the Browns skill position players like a glove.
Let's start most importantly with QB Baker Mayfield. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings ran Play Action at the 5th highest percentage in the league 31.4% (top five for the curious Jackson 34.8%, Goff 32.8%, Mahomes, and Garoppolo 31.9%). Now let's look at which QBs saw the most improvement in their numbers when they used Play Action: The player that saw the most significant change in completion percentage was Baker Mayfield with a huge difference of 10.1%. Addtinonally, he saw his yard per attempt increase by 2.6%, third highest in the league. So this leads me to believe that a switch to a play action heavy system could make a massive difference for Mayfield in 2020.
As for the running back position. In 2019 Nick Chubb asserted himself as one of the most talented running backs in football, in just his second year he racked up 1,494 yards (2nd), with 1,122 yards coming after contact (2nd) on 5 yards per carry (T-3rd) and 8 TDs (T 8th) along with posting the highest grade via PFF. Chubb falls out of the tippy top of all backs when consulting FO (footballoutsiders.com), ranking 12th in DVOA and 9th in DYAR. The final thing I want to mention is that Chubb had a low "success rate," ranking 37th in comparison to his high DVOA. Success rate measures the plays FO designate as a success based on down and distance divided by attempts. This being low next to the high DVOA shows that the player likely mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage (more on that later). With more play action to keep the defense guessing, there is every reason to believe that Chubb will be one of the league's most valuable running backs in 2020. The one thing Chubb must improve on for the 2020 season is his ball security. I'm sure I don't have to remind Browns fans that he was responsible for two fumbles on back to back plays against the Pats last year.
LSU just completed one of the greatest college football seasons in recent memory. If you asked most NFL fans who the most well-known LSU graduates were, they would probably give you the names of both Browns wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry. This may change in 2020, with many incumbent Tigers preparing for the draft currently.
As for what 2020 might have in store for OBJ and Juice; when you look at what Stefanski was doing in Minnesota, and the way he utilized his receivers there. It could give you an idea of how he might approach his new duo, which in my opinion, could be similar commentary and pieces in the Stefanski offense I'm dreaming up in my head. OBJ would take the Diggs role on the outside and become the main outlet for the deep Play Action shots that the Vikings made a considerable part of their offense in 2019. Jarvis, on the other hand, would assume the Thielen role in the offense, being used more over the middle and lining up inside the numbers more. Now, these are not perfect comparisons, but I do think this is a nice starting point for the Browns to build on when thinking about their offense for 2020. I would be remised if I didn't mention Rashard Higgins, who I think is an underrated WR who is a nice third option and could surprise people if given the opportunity.
David Njoku has yet to fulfill his first-round draft pedigree, having had a good, not great rookie campaign in 2018, followed by a season hampered by injury in 2019 (he only played in four games). However, he was someone I (and many others) was high on entering the NFL. Going as we have so far, comparing Kyle Rodolph on the 2019 Vikings team to Njoku. I do believe there is potential he could become a similar red zone threat. Njoku is a big-bodied guy at 6'4 who can move. If he can sure up his hands, be more constant and, most importantly, stay on the field. It could well be a breakout year for the Njoku as defenses struggle to cover the weapons we have covered up to now.
Now we come to the part of the Browns offense that needs to most work, the offensive line. Let's first start with the good, because there is some on this line. Guard Joel Bitonio and Center J.C. Tretter are good in pass protection. According to PFF.com, both rank inside the top 15 – only allowing four sacks and one additional QB hit; more importantly, both proved their durability playing in almost every snap. Greg Robinson had an up and down year overall, struggling most in run blocking (as did most of the Browns line). The free agent to be had some good performances down the stretch, I think his future will depend on the Browns other free agent discussions. The right side of the Browns line was not good in any way, to be fair, it was a bit of a revolving door at times due to injury, but no one they put in could help. Especially in run blocking, the Browns running blocking was amazingly poorly ranked across all the things I looked at despite Nick Chubb's monster season. According to PFF.com, their highest-rated lineman in run blocking was Bitonio, and he was 98th. Looking at footballoutsiders.com, we find that the Browns are exactly the NFL average with 40 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 7% (which was the average of all the other teams and placed them 17th). This might be what happens when half your offensive line can pass block very well, and the other half just can't. If we then use their run blocking stats: they rank particularly high in 2nd level yards 5th and open field yards 2nd. Meaning the team has a high dependence on the running back break large runs. This is where the big hole is for Stefanski's system - his offensive lineman need to be able to run block for the scheme to work well.
This should be Stefanski's focus for both the draft and possibly free agency as he looks to improve this offense and make it suit his scheme. So here are a few suggestions on players they should be targeting in the 2020 NFL draft and upcoming free agents.
2020 Draft:
The Browns currently have the 10th overall pick in the draft, and I am of the opinion that they should use this pick on the outside best lineman available. As things currently stand there is a clear top three at the position, chances are with the 10th pick the Browns can land one of these guys. They just might not have a choice. A quick look at the top three(in no particular order):
Andrew Thomas, LT, Georgia, 6'5 320lbs: Thomas projects as a premier left tackle in the NFL for years to come. Has shown proficiency in both run and pass blocking as a three-year starter for the Bulldogs. Has good power that he matches with good leverage and heavy punches. Georgia run an advanced system that involves pro concepts that can make for a smooth transition as a day one starter. The downside for the Browns would be that he isn't an ideal fit for their scheme and has some things to iron out in pass protection.
Jedrick Wills, T, Alabama, 6'5, 320lbs: As a two-year starter for Alabama at RT Wills has proved he has all the tools to be one of the better pass blockers in this draft. He's really good at getting back into his set with excellent footwork and mobility for his size. He does this smoothly without rushing and staying patient with his hands. Has extraordinary force in the run game too - generating good movement, and when he's able to remain low, he can devastating. Playing on the right side of the Bama line, he's also shown the ability to get up in the second level to make blocks in space, which would help the fit in Cleveland. On the other hand, Wills did play on the right side of the Bama line exclusively. With many teams looking to secure the left side of their line at the top of the draft many people project a switch to the left at the next level. He has all the tools to be an excellent Left Tackle, but this isn't madden. It's more challenging to switch from side to side of an offensive line than people may think. With the level of technique and muscle memory at the position, it can be really difficult to suddenly be doing everything opposite. All the footwork is backward, which hand does what etc. Some guys are gifted enough to do without too much trouble, but it's dangerous to assume everyone can. The one thing that may help Wills with a switch is that as his QB Tua Tagovailoa was left-handed, he was blocking his QBs blindside. He was playing more of a left tackle role, although all the mirror aspects still hold up.
Tristan Wirfs, T, Iowa, 6'5, 322lbs: I'll say it now this guy is going to have a combine that gets people excited. This guy is an Athlete with a capital A. He's got a seriously impressive blend of speed and power that will make him an enticing pick for most teams in the NFL (especially those that want to run zone). That power-speed combination suggests he could become a devesting run blocker, who can win at the line of scrimmage and in the 2nd level in open space. Solid in pass protection with nice footwork and hip movement to redirect pass rushers. Needs to improve his overall technique; mistiming punches in the passing game, opening up his chest or putting him off balance, also tends not to get low enough when run blocking, leading to him surrendering the block. Finally, he also has only played RT for Iowa, which means he could face the same issues as Wills.
All three are excellent prospects, and if I was a Browns fan, I could get excited about any of the three. Some quick early and probably generous NFL comps for the three: Andrew Thomas – Laremy Tunsil, Jedrick Wills – Ryan Ramczyk, Tristan Wirfs – Lane Johnson.
Two other prospects to consider:
Alex Leatherwood, LT, Alabama, 6'6, 310lbs: Leatherwood is on the other side of the kind of backward Alabama line, playing in a more right tackle style on the left side. He's athletic and has great body control allowing him able to progress well to the 2nd level and make blocks in space. Pairs this with good power to win at the line of scrimmage. The athleticism and body control extends to pass protection where he is smooth and in control. With the potential fit, don't be surprised if he climbs the Cleveland board or is the plan if the top three are not around.
Netane Muti – T/G, Fresno State, 6'3 307lb: Muti guard is currently projected to go in the late 2nd to early 3rd round. For his power and size, this guy can move with the best of them. His lateral movement will make him a target of any team using a zone running scheme. That, combined with the power he has shown throwing defenders out of his way, gives him a high ceiling. Played both tackle and guard in college, but my guess he is an interior lineman in the NFL (6'3 is just probably not tall enough). He did play on the left side throughout college, and it's hard to know how easy he would take to a switch. The main drawback and why he probably won't crack round one is a checkered injury history that includes a torn Achilles. Given the ceiling in a zone running scheme, if I was the Browns, I would give Muti serious consideration. Even though I can understand teams being scared of the injuries. I would be more than will to use a second-round pick on this guy.
2020 Free Agents:
As it currently stands according to overthecap.com, the Cleveland Browns have $50 Million in cap space for the 2020 season. Now some would suggest that they make the most of this cap before they have to pay their potential franchise QB. All I am going to do is give options for players I think they should consider. I will try to order it with the best and most expensive first and descend from there.
Anthony Castonzo, Age 32, LT: Anthony Castonzo is one of the premier left tackles in football, never mind free agency. As such, there is a very high chance he resigns with his current team, the Indianapolis Colts. However, if the Browns were able to lure him away from Indy, they would be getting a stud to anchor the left side of their line. He's an excellent pass protector and good in the run game. Not necessarily a perfect fit for a zone scheme, he's the kind of tackle that can be utilized in any system.
Jack Conklin, Age 26, RT: This is a very similar situation to that of Costanzo in that there is a high chance that his current team will do everything they can to make him stay. However, the Titans have a lot of free agents to deal with this offseason: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Logan Ryan, to name a few. Anyway, if a team can prey him away from the Titans, he would be an excellent addition. The reason that Browns should consider paying a hefty sum for his services would the potential fit at right tackle in a zone scheme. He's proved to be an excellent zone run blocker who is proficient in pass protection.
Brandon Scherff, Age 28, RG: When he has been on the field, Scherff has been a really solid all-round blocker at right guard. The drawback here is that he only played in 19 games over the last two seasons. A rebuilding Redskins team may not want to commit to someone with his injury history, which does make him interesting.
Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Age 26, T: The Philadelphia Eagles have a lot of roster decisions to make this offseason – one of those is how the situation with their free-agent tackles will play out. Both Vaitai and Jason Peters are free agents this year. The Eagles also have Lane Johnson and first-round draft pick Andre Dillard. My feeling is that it will be hard to keep Vaitai as a back-up. If that is the case, then I think Vaitai could be a useful piece for NFL teams needing help at right tackle. One of Vaitai's main issues is a lack of consistency. However, he has found consistency when playing right tackle. Something that he hasn't done much for the Eagles prior to 2019. He was often called upon to replace Jason Peters on the left side (which he did on their run to the 2018 Super Bowl). He has proved that he can play on both sides of the line, which is always handy. I think in a starting role on the right side of the line. He can be an outstanding run blocker who is capable in pass protection with a celling to improve.
Jason Peters & Andrew Whitworth, Age 38, LT: Both long-standing veterans who have had injury problems in recent years, both definitely lost a step, but both could help this Cleveland team. Both the Eagles and Rams could move on from their aging vets as they look to re-tool with newly signed QB contracts on the books. Whitworth would probably be the less likely to retire as he hasn't won a ring, unlike Peters.
My dream scenario, if I were to put my GM hat on, would be as follows: Draft Thomas, Draft Muti, sign Conklin. Starting offensive line of: LT Andrew Thomas LG Joel Bitonio C J.C. Tretter, RG Netane Muti RT Jack Conklin
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