The Carolina Panthers are coming out of their bye in week 7 with a record of 4-2. I think if Cam Newton can return to full health they have a chance at the Super Bowl.
It would have seemed preposterous to be thinking about the Carolina Panthers as any form of contender, as the curtain fell on their Thursday Night loss in week two to the Buccs (14-20). Leaving them with an 0-2 start and a Cam Newton that looked like Superman on Krypton, not the Superman who used to leap tall defenders in a single bound.
Yet I sit ready to explain why I believe there is a path for this team to be a contender this year. As the takeaway, in short, explains there are two reasons for this and a caveat;
The Panthers defense is defending the pass at an Elite level through their first six games of the season.
Christen McCaffery is on another level. His workload is constantly increasing and at the same time, he’s getting better every year.
Cam Newton can heal up to 100% by let’s say week 12, then this team can be a serious problem in the NFC. I do mean Cam back to 100%, both the shoulder and the ankle. Now, this may not be possible this year with those injuries I can’t be sure of, unfortunately.
The Carolina Defence has been one of the best in the NFL so far this season. Second only two the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers (coincidentally two of the consensus super bowl front runners. The above is my opinion. If we looked at the previously mentioned DVOA; The Panthers are ranked 4th in total defense (Pats, 49ers, and Bills in that order) and 3rd against the pass (leapfrogging the Bills).
They boast one of the strongest position groups in the NFL, on the defensive side of the ball. The line-backer room in Carolina is either the best in the league or a very close second to Seattle; with those two being a good few lengths ahead of the pack. As a grouping, you could look at them as 1a and 1b, which could also be applied to the leaders of each defense, Luke Kuechly, and Bobby Wagner. Again, both far and away the best linebackers in the NFL. According to PFF’s player grades, Kuechly hasn’t graded under 90 since 2013. I would guess that there are around 20-30 players in the entire league that grade in the 90s on any given season. So, this is next level. Second-year pro Shaq Thomson is showing why he was a first-round pick and then some this season. He looks like he’s on his way to a pro bowl nod and a really nice year overall (as it stands both players rank inside the top ten at their position via PFF, which not even the Seattle backers can claim).
It might be the most obvious statement to make in football right now, but, Christian McCaffery is playing on another level. Let’s talk about it; McCaffery has proved all the doubters wrong and then some. The knock on him coming out of college unsurprisingly was his lack of size, which lead to questions about his durability. McCaffery this season through five weeks had more offensive yards than the New York Jets. This dude is always on the field, the thing with McCaffery is he will bust a massive 50+ yard run, then be in the very next play to catch a screen pass. He did both of those for a TD back in week 13 of the 2018 season against the Buccs (you in case you want to see it in action). He can do everything you would ever want from a running back and more.
We can breakdown is dominance by virtually any you might want to pick; firstly last season.
6th in rushing yards (1098)
Lead RBs in receiving yards (867)
Tied 9th in overall touchdowns (13, 3rd was a tie with 15)
3rd All-purpose yards (1965)
1000+ rushing yards and 100 receptions (only third player in history)
10th in DVOA (value per rush)
7th in RB DYAR (total value)
5th in RB Receiving DYAR (total value)
8th best grade by PFF (min 50 attempts).
Now how he is performing this season through his first six games (He there will be a handful of players that are yet to have a bye week and will, therefore, a full games worth of yards on him).
3rd in rushing yards (618), behind only Cook and Fournette, both yet to have a bye.
3rd in RB receiving yards (305), behind only David Johnson and Austin Ekeler (Ekeler the big one here as he’s played in all seven, DJ, on the other hand, played one snap in week 7).
2nd in All-purpose yards (923), a hair behind Cook (945).
10th in DVOA (value per rush)
3rd in DYAR (total value)
4th in RB receiving DYAR (total value)
2nd best grade on PFF (to date)
He has every right to be considered one of the best weapons in the NFL.
This brings me to the aforementioned caveat, which revolves around Panthers QB Cam Newton. It feels like a lifetime in the NFL since we saw what a healthy Cam Newton looked like on the field. Understandably, I feel like people have forgotten what that looked like and just how threat he is to make this team into a real contender. Now I will say to be fair to anyone who has forgotten what a healthy Newton can do, he played a lot of football through injury looking bad. If he had just missed all those games this would be different. However, Newton soldiered on playing the majority of the second half of last season and the first two-game of this season hurt. It wasn’t pretty. The Panthers watched as their 2018 season was flushed down the toilet – following a 6-2 start, they would go winless from week 10 until a meaningless final game of the season in week 17. Missing the playoffs and finishing with a 7-9 record. Newton’s health got progressively worse through these games and by his final three appearances of the 2018 season, Newton couldn’t break 75 passer rating. After picking up a foot injury in the preseason, and suspicions of his shoulder still bothering him Newton continued this streak into the first two games of 2019; before he was replaced by rookie Kyle Allen.
To help us cast our mind back to the 2018 NFL season let’s look at DVOA. The contrast between Newton’s first nine weeks and his last five is massive. Through the first nine weeks, in which he guided the Panthers to a 6-2 record. Newton graded out as a top ten QB in the league, just next to Andrew Luck. In comparison through weeks, 10-15 Newton graded out as a bottom-five QB, his running mate this time Blake Bortles. I feel like that speaks for itself, but I will go on. His deep passing saw an incredible drop falling from the top 15 to last. Newton didn’t complete a pass over 25 air yards in his last six games of the 2018 season (0-7 with an INT).
Now I know there no absolutely no guarantee Cam would return to that form if he returned later this season. The Panthers don’t need to rush him back with Kyle Allen performing admirably in his place. The offensive line has been good so far this year, with only newly acquired veteran Matt Paradis letting them down (who may come good with a bit more time to settle into the line). Throw in both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel looking better in their second and third season respectively. It could all be set up for a healthy Cam Newton to step in with all the pieces around him firing. In my opinion, that team should be considered a Super Bowl contender.
Side note: Via the PFF 2019 QB Annual; last season Newton ranked in the middle of the pack when passing from a clean pocket, compared to 28th when under pressure. Carolina’s offensive line is currently grading well via PFF – with both Tackles in the top 20 (at their position) and the Guards both rank in the top 35. As previously mentioned Center Paradis is letting the side down ranked 29th.
Appendix 1: DVOA Explanation
Appendix 2: DYAR Explanation
Credits: Stats provided by:
Photo credit:
Cover via www.denverpost.com
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